Monday, February 24, 2025

It's NOT a German problem. It's a a symptom of a Global Malaise.

The political center in Germany is collapsing. Sunday’s election results confirmed a trend that has been unfolding for decades; mainstream establishment parties are losing their grip, and the electorate is shifting towards the extremes. The CDU/CSU and SPD, once the dominant forces of German politics, secured a combined vote share of just 45.0%—the lowest on record, continuing a sharp decline from their 91.2% peak in 1976. The SPD in particular saw its weakest showing since 1887. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD surged to 20.8%, while the far-left Die Linke and BSW collectively took another 13.7%, cementing a broader polarization that mirrors trends in France, the UK, and beyond.

The root cause? Stagnant economic growth and rising inequality. The cause? Policy makers and complacent central bankers attempting to centrally plan and print their societies and respective "states" to prosperity. 

Decades of sluggish expansion from these failed initiatives and theories have left a growing portion of the electorate exposed to economic hardship, and in response, voters are abandoning the center in favor of parties that challenge the status quo. The political realignment is further fueled by globalization and immigration—issues where mainstream parties have been accused of being out of touch with public sentiment. While economic prosperity might have once dulled concerns over these topics, weak growth has made them defining issues of the modern political landscape. 

This should not be surprising at all. When people feel as though they are losing it all.... they lose it. This being said I believe we're likely to see increasing polarization and where the chips fall we may not exactly know; However, I don't feel it will be on the side of health and prosperity for all. Ideology seems to be driving the populist impulse (on both sides). 

At the heart of it all is an economic paradox: the modern system relies on ever-increasing debt to sustain growth, and without it, the political center will continue to erode. The response from policymakers? More debt. The forces of economic stagnation and political instability are reinforcing each other, making it increasingly clear that the future will bring greater political conflict within developed nation borders. Not just in Germany, but across the world.

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